Out of a billion populated Indians about 714 millions voters will be voting for the coming Loka Shaba election 2009, a mind boggling figure. Two national parties the UPA led ruling government and BJP, besides record number of small regional parties will be in the election fray. Both the national parties the congress and BJP had failed to retain their key allies which would impact the outcome of this election. The pundits and opinion polls have given a slight edge to congress party over its arch rivals the BJP. The punters favor the congress party to come back to power. However it will be tough going for the congress party to cobble up a simple majority of 272 seats with help of its alliance partners.
Small regional parties like RJD, Samajwadi party, DMK, BJD and host of other parties will play a major role in post poll alliance. It is predicted that congress party would be able to muster up to 145 -160 seats and BJP will be not left far behind as it would manage about 140 to 150 seats. The third front might come closer to bagging 100 seats. The key allies will be seen backing the winning horse and demand its pound of flesh in new power sharing equation for formation of government at the centre. The left front has made its stand clear of not backing the congress. But one never knows what would happen in the post poll scenario. In the event of congress becoming a single largest party all its key allies would fall in line to support a UPA government and back Manmohan Singh as PM. Still if UPA alliance falls short of majority we might see some party breaking away from third front to lend its support just to keep the BJP away from power. So in all likelihood we might see a secular UPA government once again ruling at the centre.
This election has its own share of drama and antics. The first salvo was fired by the young Varun Gandhi who made a hate speech and catapulted himself in the national politics. What a way to go. For the first time we saw an aggressive Manmohan Singh trying to shake off the tag of a weak PM charged by LK Advani. He surprised many by ably countering Advani and accusing the BJP with mishandling Kandahar hostage issues. The shoe throwing incident added some color to the otherwise listless electioneering due to absence of any national issues.
All eye is focus on D day of May 16th when election result will be out and then the next spectacle of battle lines will drawn between two national parties trying to woo small parties to form a government.
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